THE JUAN SOTO DERBY: FUN FOR THE WINNER, SAD FOR BASEBALL
When a team in the nation’s capital can’t keep star players, it underscores the crippling competitive disparity in MLB, which should seek well-heeled, no-tank owners pledged to spending in all markets
When I say there must be reasons to visit a ballpark, I don’t mean Bobblehead giveaways and Racing Pierogies, or 18-inch hot dogs, 32-ingredient salads, toasted grasshoppers and some of the oddballish concessions served these days. I mean, exciting gate attractions.
As in, superstars and thrillmakers.
“FU-TURE DOD-GER! FU-TURE DOD-GER!” tens of thousands chanted when Juan Soto came to bat this week at Dodger Stadium, where the stands are packed every game with fans who know they’ll be treated to a talent-bulging lineup. That’s because the team’s owners want to win at any cost in an ultra-competitive Los Angeles entertainment market, a pledge that keeps the locals happy and ready to spend in Baseball Hollywood. The same can be said at both New York parks, Yankee Stadium and Citi Field, where the luminaries on stage reflect Broadway shows.
Reasons to go? There are plenty in the sport’s bi-coastal hubs, as there are in places such as Atlanta and Toronto, even in San Diego and St. Louis. Yet, with just a couple of others, those are the only cities right now where fans realistically can consider a chant attaching Soto to their clubs. Which is sad, if also an indictment of a sport that no longer reaches the level of “Major League” in most markets. Never has the disparity between “haves” and “have-nots” been wider, which turns every season into a relegation slog more than a championship chase. And it’s not necessarily a matter of market size — see: Chicago, where two teams that have won exactly two World Series since the 1920s spend more time in rebuild mode than in contention — as much as the commitment of owners.
Or, in too many cases, the lack thereof.
The disillusioning divide is on full display in the chase for Soto, the 23-year-old unicorn who will end up with an elite franchise — and possibly with the Dodgers, as a nation groans — in another reminder that MLB has only a few Real Madrids, Manchester Uniteds and Paris St. Germains while overloaded with second- and third-tier clubs. The Eurosoccer reference continues to apply across American sports, including realignment-crazed college football, and much as the Soto story will generate a daily media frenzy until Tuesday’s trade deadline, it’s also a downer in the two dozen cities where fans know he isn’t coming. Once he’s traded by the Washington Nationals, football season kicks in for 90 percent of the country. Explain how any of this is good for the totality of baseball, where October likely will be dominated by the L.A. and New York empires.
Last I looked, Washington is still our nation’s capital. It’s also the No. 6 market in metropolitan population, larger than South Florida, Philadelphia, Boston and Atlanta. As a baseball town, it should rate among the sport’s perennial “haves,” without interruption, and in recent years, the Nationals won a World Series and trotted out a nightly star procession that included Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon and, youngest and mightiest of all, Soto.
If managed with even mediocre efficiency, this franchise should have been positioned for success well into the 2020s. But owned by the Lerner family, the Nationals became the latest “have” to slide into a “have-not” rebuilding abyss that never should go down in a prominent city. Assuming he could find the ballpark, why would President Joe Biden want to attend a game? The rebuilds happen, disturbingly, too often in this sport. Teams enjoy a triumphant run, then allow their best and most popular players to leave so somebody else can reward them with maximum wealth. Or, they go decades without a triumphant run or a sniff at a World Series.
The hump-and-dump game transpired most recently in Chicago, still the No. 3 market, with the moneyed Cubs. Now, the Nationals are following the same downsizing formula and placing Soto on the trade market while the Lerners prepare to sell a franchise that should be an industry cornerstone. After Harper, Scherzer, Turner and Rendon were allowed to move on and scatter throughout the big leagues, all eyes are on Soto, who last week rejected a 15-year, $440-million extension offer because: (1) the team no longer is competitive, by design; and (2) he can make more and win more elsewhere, meaning the Nationals intentionally made him a lesser offer realizing Soto and superagent Scott Boras would say no. With typical shallow exuberance, the relentless rumors are viewed by fans and media as a frenetic sweepstakes, in what has been called the most anxious midseason drama in MLB history.
What they should be asking: What does it say when a “have” prefers to become a “have-not” instead of spending ample profits to keep some of the lions who brought joy to a fan base? It’s stunning how many thrillmakers have been allowed to leave Nationals Park, just as it’s stunning how many left Wrigley Field. Why own a team if you’re not interested in keeping a winning gang together to some degree? Why own a team if you don’t have the financial wherewithal — or, more to the point, the financial desire — to chase pennants annually? It astounds me how many times the MLB owners have rejected Mark Cuban, who only turned the nondescript Dallas Mavericks into a top NBA franchise, when he inquired about pouring his billions into ownership of the Cubs, Texas Rangers or Pittsburgh Pirates, his hometown team. The owners and commissioner Rob Manfred are delusional, you see, actually believing their sport doesn’t need Cuban when, in fact, its future depends on newer, wealthier ownership that will commit to winning and spending regardless of market size. Plenty of billionaires out there would love to own a franchise, but the old farts keep closing doors to their exclusive club, as the building burns around them.
The latest imbalance narrative is centered around where Soto and Boras end up after the massive spenders (Dodgers, Yankees, Mets) and next-tier teams (Padres, Cardinals, Mariners, Giants) are done loading top prospects into the portal for the perusal of Mike Rizzo, the Nationals’ general manager. Me? I’m mortified the Nats have established another damaging precedent in the sport. As it is, we’re used to teams in smaller markets — Pittsburgh, Oakland, Cincinnati — unloading young stars in trades for prospects before they have to PAY them. Now, we’re seeing teams in larger markets taking the same cheap route.
I keep wondering why the Nats don’t keep Soto. He doesn’t enter free agency until after the 2024 season and, at about $60 million for the rest of this season and the next two full seasons, remains a sweet bargain for the next owner. The assumption is the buyer — whether it’s a group led by Wizards and Capitals owner Ted Leonsis or another led by private equity kingpin Michael B. Kim, South Korea’s third-richest person, per Forbes — wouldn’t want the public-relations headache of having to trade Soto. Here’s an idea for the team’s managing general owner, Mark Lerner: How about asking the prospective owners first?
If I’m buying the Nats for their assessed value of more than $2 billion, I might like to center my first few seasons around the gate-and-TV panache of a breathtaking sensation. The fact the Lerners are in such a rush to trade Soto only underscores the chronic MLB disease. Are we down to only three boutique teams willing to spend whatever it takes? The Guggenheim-owned Dodgers count, as do the Steve Cohen-owned Mets, and we presume the Hal Steinbrenner-run Yankees still belong, though they strategically could let Aaron Judge walk for his desired $300 million-plus this winter. They are the only teams who would acquire Soto with the idea of signing him to a $500 million contract, with the same limited pool — think Mets — involved when another major-market waster of talent, the Los Angeles Angels, decide to trade Shohei Ohtani.
Mark Lerner apparently would rather take Soto off the books and give the next owner a fresh start with prospects. Why? Just because teams are standing in line now — the $60 million for Soto covers three potential pennant races, which is why San Diego, St. Louis and Cleveland are in the short-term mix — doesn’t mean they won’t stand in line later. Maybe the next owner isn’t a cost-efficiency freak. Maybe he’ll like telling fans, “Hey, come to Nationals Park and watch Juan Soto as we build a new era!”
And, who knows, maybe Soto will be impressed enough with the new owner that he’ll want to stay after 2024. That’s a lot of time in a sports industry that swirls relentlessly in a cycle of change. For now, the schedule demands he absorb the Dodger Stadium love-ins, which started when he won the Home Run Derby at the All-Star Game and continued this week with three games against his possible future team. He was polite when asked about the ongoing chants, saying, “I mean, it sounds pretty fun. But at the end of the day, I’m glad they’re cheering for me. I don’t mind whatever they’re saying. They’re saying something good. I think I’m just enjoying it. It’s been crazy, things that I never think were going to happen to me.”
Still, Soto doesn’t sound like someone begging to leave Washington. “I never think about that because I never see myself in any of that,” he said. “I’ve always been loyal to the Nationals. I’ve always been there for them. As you see, everywhere I’m going they try to pull me out of my team. But I just keep staying in touch with the Nationals because that’s where I am right now and that’s where I’m going to be loyal until they don’t want me anymore here.”
In any sensible context, a franchise in the District of Columbia should not be shipping its most valuable assets to southern California for kids. But the tanking Nationals have enabled a pipeline that has allowed the Dodgers to remain prime championship contenders. Last year, Turner and Scherzer came in a deal for prized prospects Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz, who contributed to Washington’s 8-3 victory Tuesday night. Now, Rizzo wants more gold from the deep developmental mines of Dodgers guru Andrew Friedman. Of course, Friedman and the Guggenheim money men — Mark Walter and Todd Boehly among them — want Soto now. They see a beast who can help win an immediate championship, but in a bigger picture, they see a bilingual star who will be an icon in the southern California melting pot deep into the 2030s. He’d fit in right alongside Mookie Betts, Turner, Freddie Freeman and whoever else arrives amid a constant reload.
To win it all this year — remember, the Dodgers have won only once in the Guggenheim era and are in danger of becoming the 1990s Atlanta Braves — they might be smarter and aim for a starting pitcher such as Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo. But with substantial wealth and resources, hell, what stops Friedman from getting Castillo now and Soto later? “It’s more about assessing the specific need, and also the top-end type players that aren’t necessarily a need, but don’t become available all that often,” he told the Los Angeles Times. “When they do, you always see that process through. That’s kind of our mindset heading into these last couple weeks.”
They also will consider the trend of what happens to stars who sign for double-digit seasons: Mike Trout has what the Angels’ trainer described as a “rare” spinal condition, which throws into doubt a 12-year, $426.5-million extension that runs through 2030, though Trout says the Wednesday story was overblown. Betts has won a World Series in the early stages of his 12-year, $365-million deal, but what about Harper — who has nine seasons left on his 13-year, $330-million deal in Philadelphia — and the Mets’ Francisco Lindor, whose 10-year, $340-million contract kicked in this season? Ever since Fernando Tatis Jr. signed a 14-year, $340-million deal in San Diego, he has had trouble staying on the field. Yet Manny Machado, who signed for $300 million over 10 years with the Padres, is an MVP candidate.
Whatever happens, a party will break out in the town that wins Soto. And a downer will overtake D.C. and the markets that don’t get him. Even the unicorn himself, who won a championship in Washington and now only sees darkness, might be melancholy.
“It stinks for him,” said Turner, who has been there. “But he learns every year. That’s the business side. Last year, I know he was really mad when everyone got traded. He learned that’s the business. It is what it is, but hopefully it works out for both sides.”
While speaking to reporters, Turner spotted Friedman on the field. “I’m pretty sure if that man right there can acquire him for the right price, he will do it in a heartbeat,” he said. “Which is a cool part about playing here. If those people are available, they’ll be here.”
Cool for L.A., sure.
Not cool for the rest of baseball.
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Jay Mariotti, called “without question the most impacting Chicago sportswriter of the past quarter-century,’’ writes general sports columns for Substack while appearing on some of the 1,678,498 podcasts and shows in production today. He is an accomplished columnist, TV panelist and talk/podcast host. Living in Los Angeles, he gravitated by osmosis to film projects.