HAS NIL BECOME A NIL PROPOSITION FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL?
What was supposed to be a welcome change — compensating players for names, images and likenesses — has further tilted the balance of power to a handful of `haves’ with the most resources and clout
This never would be as simple as “paying the players.’’ If you thought so, you grossly underestimated how the rich and mighty would become richer and mightier. Already, not a month into the first college football season in which athletes are compensated via names, images and likenesses, there is outcry that suggests the sport’s upper crust will shrink to merely a few megaprograms with the most generous boosters.
You don’t think James Franklin knows that, as he basks in another glorious 110,000-strong Whiteout on a Saturday night in Happy Valley. Before NIL, Penn State was a premier coaching gig. Now, the collective donor potential in central Pennsylvania — as it applies to paying athletes for their services — wanes in comparison to USC, the money-and-clout powerhouse expected to pursue Franklin for its vacancy. Why do you think he hemmed and hawed when asked about reports to that effect, when he could have buried the story and silenced the noise?
Oh, maybe because he wants the job. And knows he has a better shot of winning a national championship in the bosom of Los Angeles, with Hollywood’s resources and extensive influence blanket, even during a season when the Nittany Lions are ranked No. 6 and have a direct path to the College Football Playoff. Otherwise, Franklin would say it loud and clear: I love where I am, and I’m staying. Instead, he demurred this week: “I’ve tracked this over time, that really no matter what you say, people aren’t happy with, so I’ve decided I will handle this internally, talk to our team. I’m not worried about distractions in the media, and with the fans. I’m worried about my team.”
If Franklin flees Penn State bedrock for a California dream, consider it a statement about where the sport is headed in a NIL economy. At USC, he would have an extensive network of supporters to provide financial inducements and endorsement opportunities for athletes — now a legal practice thanks to a Supreme Court ruling, after decades of under-the-table cheating — that wouldn’t be available in State College. Think: deals with Beverly Hills agencies, which also could offer lunch dates with clients such as LeBron James, or connections with movie studios and music houses including a visit from Snoop Dogg. The best he’s going to do at Penn State is a local car dealer.
The most coveted players — recruits and transfers alike — will be weighing destinations based on compensation possibilities. Meaning, the power elite of the Southeastern Conference will capitalize on its cachet and continue to rule the national landscape. Which explains the horrified shrieks when Oklahoma and Texas were lured to the SEC and the subsequent rush of the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC to join hands against the cabal-like monopoly masterminded by Nick Saban and his conference lackey, commissioner-in-name Greg Sankey.
Consider the NIL-era plight of Gary Patterson, long hailed as a rousing coaching success at Texas Christian. No matter how well he recruits, he knows his players might be SEC-poached via the transfer portal unless business leaders in the Fort Worth area start paying his players. Um, many local businesses feel fortunate to be operating and employing their own workers during a pandemic. Patterson wants them funneling profits to his quarterback or linebacker.
“There’s five SEC schools calling him and telling him, ‘Here’s what we’ll give you if you come here and not stay at TCU,’ ’’ Patterson told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “At the end of the day, that’s just real life. If we don’t do anything about it, within a year we lose him. The rules have changed. There is no wrong anymore. We planted the trees. Now we have to water ‘em. I hear, ‘Well, I don’t want to get dirty. It feels dirty. I don’t know the rules.’ Let me just say, you guys know me, I’m just going to tell the truth — the bottom line to it is, I can lose 25-30 guys on scholarships by January.’’
Saban, in particular, is seizing an opportunity and ignoring those who decry his greed. At this point, his built-in advantages allow him to ride the NIL train to more national titles than the six he already has won at Alabama and seven overall. His quarterback, Bryce Young, signed NIL-related deals for $1 million before his first season as a starter. When Jeremy Pruitt was fired as Tennessee’s coach, blue-chip linebacker Henry To’o To’o fled to Tuscaloosa and landed an immediate underwear endorsement. Leave it to Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, Saban’s former offensive playcaller and occasional nemesis, to point out the inequities.
“Now they go to cherry-pick players for any holes they may have, like an Ohio State receiver (Jameson Williams) or a Tennessee linebacker,’’ Kiffin said. “So now, it's like not only do they get the best draft picks but they get to go into free agency and take players, so it really is going to set up one of the most talented teams ever, which is what we're getting ready to play."
The best response for Kiffin is to march into Sabanville a week from Saturday and deliver a historic upset. But that’s not realistic, even if Alabama looked vulnerable at Florida, in part because To’o To’o leads the Crimson Tide in tackles and Williams in receiving yardage. It’s not as if Saban is apologizing for his leverage play.
“I think what's gonna happen, as you've seen happen in a lot of leagues, the good players go to a good team and the bad players leave good teams because they're not playing," he said last month. “Is that gonna make the rich get richer? I don't know. You can decide that."
What I want to know is what happens when NIL-paid players don’t meet expectations. Can they be dumped by their endorsement daddies? Dr. Pepper and Bojangles thought the new Clemson quarterback, D.J. Uiagalelei, would have the same dazzling impact as predecessors Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson. Instead, he’s the symbol of an offense gone stagnant. Certainly, his performances aren’t helping soft drink and chicken sales. Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler, who has a local NIL deal for two cars, has fallen out of the top 30 in efficiency rating and won’t be winning the Heisman Trophy and receiving hugs from Roger Goodell as the No. 1 overall NFL pick — unlike his forerunners at the position, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield.
Poor Fowler Automotive, which excitedly tweeted after the second vehicle gift: “Being QB1 for one of the best football programs in the country is hard work but all the hard work and dedication does not go unnoticed. Fowler Automotive wanted to find a way to keep our boy Spencer Rattler comfortable, when he is driving to and from practice, and even though there is only one Spencer, having just one car wasn’t going to be enough, so we went big with two vehicles.” How nice if Rattler had worn OU garb in his promo photo — alongside a 2021 Ram TRX and 2021 Widebody Charger Scat Pack — instead of the red cap of the Diamondbacks, a Major League Baseball team in his native Arizona.
At least Young is justifying his NIL deals with Creative Artists Agency and Cash App, surviving a raucous environment in Gainesville to keep Alabama atop the national rankings. CAA, one such L.A. talent agency, sees an opportunity to grow a long-term relationship with a quarterback on a first-round beeline to the NFL.
Not that all of this doesn’t have the look of pro football as it is. The NIL marketplace could reach $1 billion territory, all depending on how much more television money flows into the sport. For now, discussions between the warring conferences on that front — SEC vs. The Alliance — have stalled. You’ll never guess why. They can’t agree on the number of teams to include in a possible College Football Playoff expansion.
The SEC boys kinda like the system the way it is.
And why wouldn’t they? They run the whole dang thing.
Jay Mariotti, called “the most impacting Chicago sportswriter of the past quarter-century,’’ writes general sports columns for Substack while appearing on some of the 1,678,498 podcasts and shows in production today. He is an accomplished columnist, TV panelist and talk/podcast host. Living in Los Angeles, he gravitated by osmosis to film projects.