FROM PATRICK MAHOMES ALL THE WAY DOWN, HERE’S NO. 1 TO NO. 32 IN THE NFL
It’s simple to expect Mahomes and Jalen Hurts to reach another Super Bowl, after their clash for the ages, but this time, we’re realizing Hurts is back for a bash in his second straight championship
The fascination with The Great American Quarterback begins in high school, where you cheer him, date him, scribble nasty things about him on bathroom walls or, these days, help cut him an NIL deal. At the most glamorous and vital position in sports, there’s a disproportionate amount of babble that borders on hysterical obsession. The spectacle only intensifies, of course, in the NFL.
I swear, the second-most popular sport in the nation is the quarterbacking carousel. The day is coming when ESPN dumps all its TV studio shows — it’s coming — and flips over to 24/7/365 QB talk. Chatter no longer involves the man who just turned 46 and huddles with Irina Shayk, his Super Bowl interest long gone. There’s another great who’s close to 40 and still hoping for a second ring, name of Aaron Rodgers, but the big issue is whether Patrick Mahomes can win No. 3 while Joe Burrow deals with more injuries and Josh Allen tries to reach a Super Bowl with his own side-girl issues.
Let’s introduce the QB Drama Meter, a 1-through-32 ranking of anticipated performances but also projected levels of noise and buzz. This season, it’s whether Mahomes will keep winning. Will he? I say no, of course.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City — In his most eminent feelings about a third Super Bowl, he refused to say he’ll win another title before pinpointing the issue. “There hasn’t been a team that’s gone back-to-back since the Patriots in 2003-04,” he said, referring to Tom Brady in what will be a constant theme. “It’s hard. It’s going to be the hardest it’s been.” Once again, the Chiefs will deal with the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers, all of whom have top seven QBs. But the other morning, while watching Mahomes throw a ball behind his back and hit Skyy Moore with a lob pass in stride, it occurred that the Philadelphia Eagles will await again in the Super Bowl. This time, even though he wins his third MVP this regular season, he won’t win the prize.
2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia — Hold on. We’re forgetting his sensational Super Bowl performance, which came after a near-MVP showing in the regular season and realizing he almost kept Mahomes at one championship. This time, he wins. The only thing that could hurt him is having his coordinator, Shane Steichen, in Indianapolis. But at this point, Hurts is too far along in a conference where he’s the star quarterback. Wasn’t long ago when he went 53rd in the second round in the 2020 draft, if you recall where you where that day.
3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati — Maybe this time, he’ll realize he has been sacked 92 times in two seasons. If so, the Bengals still might win a Super Bowl. If not, Burrow will keep fading from a spot at the top, where Mahomes’ teammate, Jason Kelce, said of Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase, “Don’t you ever disrespect Pat Mahomes now. If you want to talk your (expletive), talk your (expletive), pimp. Just better back it up.”
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo — This is not what the Bills need, another Hollywood girl to mess things up. But Allen continues with Hailee Steinfeld, whose privacy was invaded by media in Mexico. “The fact anybody cares about that still blows my mind,” he said. “I just, like, felt this gross feeling. Insecurity. No privacy. (I was) like, ‘What is wrong with people.’ ” If he misses again in the AFC title game, or beforehand, questions will linger about his status in the sport.
5. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets — For now, keep him here below Allen. But if the Jets triumph on the first Monday night against the Bills, Rodgers becomes the biggest player in the league as America — what? — roots for him. There will be calf strains. Zach Wilson is needed as the backup. Rodgers won’t reach the Super Bowl, but this sure beats another shaky year in Green Bay.
6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers — He’ll need to separate himself from losing a 27-0 lead to Jacksonville in the postseason. That will happen, but not until Brandon Staley is gone as head coach.
7. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore — No doubt he has a chance to propel with Todd Monken, the new offensive coordinator, but this also could expose his problems as a passer. Jackson has suffered two straight injury-shortened seasons. No one I know thinks he was worthy of his money.
8. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville — In his third year, this could be where he makes a postseason ride after Doug Pederson replaced the Urban Meyer mess. Lawrence is the seventh-best AFC quarterback but No. 1 in the South. Look out for a 11-6 crash at the top.
9. Dak Prescott, Dallas — At some point, even Jerry Jones — who turns 81 in October — will realize his quarterback and his head coach suck. Prescott turns over the ball in the postseason. That won’t change, yet he’s No. 2 in the NFC.
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami — If you believe he can stay healthy, you’re with me. The problem is his head coach, Mike McDaniel, who so far hasn’t proven he can keep him upright. This is a gamble, a big one.
11. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota — He somehow led the NFL, correct, with eight fourth-quarter comeback victories. But it won’t be enough in the postseason, when Cousins will do stunts at the Bart Starr Award when Mahomes is preparing to play in a Super Bowl.
12. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland — He finally has upended his ways, talking to teammates about his 11-game suspension and $5 million penalty. Whether they believe him or not is another story. “The whole situation changed me,” Watson said. “In a situation where I had to lock in on myself, channel and really know who I’m surrounding myself with and just really who’s going to be there and support me even when I’m at my lowest point — and the last few years were definitely my lowest point in my life.” They may think it’s time to move on, but not enough to think he’s worth anywhere near $230 million guaranteed.
13. Jared Goff, Detroit — I’m a believer that Goff, who could soar back into the Top 10, is a believer in Dan Campbell and a team that could win the NFC North. Still need to see another regular season of work, but he’ll continue in the league — unlike the QB for whom he was traded.
14. Russell Wilson, Denver — Sean Payton will come in, after rudely addressing one-year fiasco Nathaniel Hackett, and fix some of the issues with the 34-year-old quarterback. But we’re talking about a four-year decline. It was not a good deal with Seattle and never will be.
15. Derek Carr, New Orleans — We’re still not halfway down the list, and we’re looking at QBs hitting the twilight of their journey. Carr is a mid-tier player who will win his share, but not enough. Fifteenth? Really?
16. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh — He’ll need to move up the pack to get Ben Roethlisberger off his ledge each Monday. With a stud at running back and wide receiver, he’s getting ready.
17. Brock Purdy, San Francisco — For now, watch. He’s still playing for Kyle Shanahan, and if they could do it last season, why not again? “Honestly, for myself, it’s just football. I wasn’t even thinking about it,” Purdy said of a recent knockdown. “He hit the ball out of my hand and I was going through to finish the throw and the ball ended up being on the ground. It’s football. I told him, ‘Dude, it’s football. I get it. We’re in a competing environment. Things happen.’ But for myself, was I scared about it? Was I timid after that? No.”
18. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams — There’s plenty of talk about his backup, Stetson Bennett, getting time this preseason. If Stafford continues to get hurt — and his wife, Kelly, uses her podcast to say she didn’t have cancer in 2019 — the rumors will circulate he won’t be around much past 36.
19. Daniel Jones, New York Giants — He probably deserves a better rating, but again, how will he do as Saquon Barkley accepted $11 million this season? This will be a down season for the Giants and Jones, despite his … $40 million per?
20. Bryce Young, Carolina — If you wonder how he mastered the side-armed strike, he credits Rodgers. “He just opened that window, that door, for people to change arm angles. It’s huge,” Young said. It’s hard to say he’ll come in and rule the league as Offensive Rookie of the Year, but I’m of that mindset.
21. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas — Already, we have a Josh Jacobs meltdown at running back and a Davante Adams injury at receiver. It didn’t take long for Garoppolo to have a nail at his skull.
22. Kyler Murray, Arizona — He has a new coach, Jonathan Gannon, and that will create a few memories of what made him a rocket QB. But do we think someone coming off an ACL will return to his basics? Not enough.
23. Mac Jones, New England — The next Brady might be the man who pushes Bill Belichick upstairs. Yes, as I’ve said, Brady won that war.
24. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee — He is near the end, but Tannehill does have DeAndre Hopkins. If not, then Malik Willis and Will Levis. Wow.
25. Justin Fields, Chicago — Can he throw the ball? Be certain other teams spent the offseason deciding. If Fields can’t, the Bears will win enough in that division — 6-11, I say — that they’ll fall out of No. 1 contention for Caleb Williams. And again, Chicago won’t have a real QB, forever and ever.
26. Geno Smith, Seattle — You gather the backup quarterback, Drew Lock, might become better known for his Young Jeezy aficionado act. At some point, Smith will fall backward.
27. Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay — For Mayfield, an ex-overall No. 1 selection, this could be the end. A Netflix show appears.
28. Sam Howell, Washington — New owner Josh Harris just took over the Commanders. Already, he has new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy raising hell and a quarterback who can’t play in the league.
29. Jordan Love, Green Bay — I saw him Friday night in Cincinnati. I need to see so much more.
30. C.J. Stroud, Houston — I saw him Thursday night in New England. I need to see a whole lot more.
31. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis — I’ll be watching today. Why?
32. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta — Is Matt Ryan still around?
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Jay Mariotti, called “without question the most impacting Chicago sportswriter of the past quarter-century,’’ writes general sports columns for Substack while appearing on some of the 1,678,498 podcasts and shows in production today. He is an accomplished columnist, TV panelist and talk/podcast host. Living in Los Angeles, he gravitated by osmosis to film projects.